POLICY ANALYSIS — APRIL 2026

Labor & Power

How California's 2-million-member labor movement shapes wage law, healthcare costs, and the legislative agenda — and the self-reinforcing loop between mandated raises and union dues.

SEIU CA Members
750K
Across long-term care, healthcare, public, property
2024 Political Spend
$200M
SEIU national election investment
Dues Growth
+22%
SEIU Local 2015, 2022 → 2024
On Representation
16%
Share of Local 2015 spending categorized as such

Why This Matters for Policy

Unions are not just a stakeholder — they are a structural force in CA legislation.

California organized labor is unusually concentrated in three sectors that touch state spending directly: healthcare (Medi-Cal reimbursement, hospital regulation), public employees (state and county payrolls), and long-term care (the $28.5B IHSS program). When wages rise in any of these sectors, union dues rise mechanically — and the political budget that funds the next campaign rises with them.

This is not a conspiracy claim. It's a structural observation. SB 525 (healthcare $25 floor) and AB 1228 (fast-food $20) were both SEIU priority bills. Both produced wage increases for workers and dues increases for the unions that organized them. The same dynamic is visible in Oregon, Illinois, and New York labor markets.

The Major California Locals

Membership by SEIU local. Most are healthcare or public-sector.

SEIU Local 2015 (long-term care)SEIU-UHW (healthcare west)SEIU 721 (LA County public)SEIU 1000 (state employees)Other SEIU CA0K150K300K450K600K500K150K100K96K154K

Note: Local 2015 figure includes ~254K covered-but-non-paying workers who opted out post-Harris v. Quinn (2014).

The Wage-Dues Loop

SEIU Local 2015 dues revenue tracking the SB 525 phase-in.

202220232024$0M$30M$60M$90M$120M$93.5M$104M$114.5M

SB 525 was signed October 2023; first wage step took effect October 2024. Dues are pegged to wages, so each mandated raise auto-increases union revenue.

Eight Threads

Membership, money, mechanism, and the limits of the model.

Membership Scale

750K in CA

SEIU California represents about 750,000 members across long-term care, healthcare, public services, and property services. SEIU Local 2015 alone claims 500,000 long-term care workers (though only 246K pay dues — the rest opted out post-Janus and Harris v. Quinn). The combined CA labor movement — SEIU plus CTA, AFSCME, CNA, UFCW, building trades — has well over 2 million members.

Political Spending

$200M in 2024

SEIU's national 2024 election investment was $200M — the largest in the union's history. The SEIU COPE PAC raised $74M in 2023–24. SEIU spent $35.4M in direct federal contributions in 2024 alone, with another $12.6M in outside spending. CTA (teachers) is the second-largest organizational political donor in California history.

The Self-Reinforcing Loop

Wages → dues

Union dues are pegged to wages. When a union-backed wage law passes (SB 525, AB 1228, IHSS expansions), members get raises and dues automatically rise. SEIU Local 2015's dues revenue went from $93.5M (2022) → $114.5M (2024) — a 22% jump tracking the SB 525 phase-in. Higher dues fund more political spending, which produces more wage mandates.

How Dues Are Spent

16% representation

SEIU Local 2015's 2024 LM-2 filing (federal disclosure): $40.7M to SEIU national HQ, $4.5M to political activity and lobbying, $1.9M to grants, but only $18.3M (16%) categorized as 'representational activities.' President Verrett earned $306K; multiple EVPs over $250K. Critics (Cato, Freedom Foundation) call this misallocation; defenders argue political work is representation by other means.

The IHSS Question

$28.5B program

In-Home Supportive Services pays caregivers (mostly family members) to look after elderly parents or disabled children at home. SEIU represents these workers — even though many didn't choose to join. The Supreme Court flagged this in Harris v. Quinn (2014) as a 'money-making scheme.' Default automatic dues withholding continues; many caregivers (elderly, non-English-speaking) keep paying without knowing they can opt out.

Hospital-Side Counterforce

CHA / individual systems

California Hospital Association (CHA) is the structural counterweight — and is currently sponsoring a 2026 ballot initiative requiring unions to disclose how dues are spent on politics and to get majority member approval for ballot-measure spending. Individual hospital systems (Kaiser, Sutter, Cedars-Sinai) bargain directly. Kaiser pre-empted SB 525 with a Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions agreement that mirrored the law.

Strike Activity

2023–24 wave

California saw the largest strike wave in 40 years: Kaiser caregivers (75K workers, Oct 2023), UAW autoworkers, SAG-AFTRA, WGA, UPS, fast-food council formation, hotel workers, healthcare workers across multiple systems. Each settlement set precedent and fed back into the next bargaining cycle. CNA's nurse strikes against Kaiser, Sutter, and Stanford in 2024–25 directly informed staffing-ratio legislation.

What Survives Janus

Public-sector

Janus v. AFSCME (2018) ended mandatory agency fees for public-sector workers. Membership in CA public-sector unions dipped briefly but recovered — partly because the unions invested heavily in member retention infrastructure. Private-sector unions are unaffected by Janus. The post-Janus reality is that political clout depends on engagement, not compulsion — and CA unions have generally cleared that bar.

Two Honest Frames

Both are defensible; both are partial.

THE LABOR FRAME

Without organized labor, low-wage workers in healthcare and long-term care would have no counterweight to consolidated hospital systems and corporate ownership. Wages have stagnated where unions are weak. The political activity is the price of having any voice at all when the other side is a $11B/year hospital industry with $1M+ CEO compensation.

THE CRITIC FRAME

When 16% of dues actually fund representation and 40%+ flows to politics and national HQ, the union has become its own stakeholder. The wage-dues feedback loop creates an incentive to pursue mandates regardless of whether they're affordable. IHSS family caregivers being defaulted into a union they didn't choose is a real democratic problem.

Bottom Line

California organized labor is a structural participant in policy, not merely a lobby. It writes wage law, sponsors ballot initiatives, defaults workers into membership, and uses dues revenue to fund the next campaign. The mechanism is legal, transparent in LM-2 filings, and sets it apart from any other California interest group in scale and durability.

The honest debate isn't whether unions matter — they obviously do — but whether the current arrangement (automatic dues, defaulted membership for IHSS caregivers, 16% representation share, ballot initiatives funded by mandate-driven dues growth) is what voters would design from scratch. The 2026 CHA-sponsored disclosure initiative is the first serious test of that question in years.

Sources. SEIU Local 2015 LM-2 filing (2024); SEIU California; OpenSecrets SEIU profile (2024 cycle); Ballotpedia SEIU and California 2026 ballot propositions; California Policy Center; Americans for Fair Treatment LM-2 analysis; Harris v. Quinn (2014); Janus v. AFSCME (2018); California Hospital Association; Federal Election Commission filings; UC Berkeley Labor Center.
Sources: EIA, CAISO, CA Energy Commission, CPUC, CA Legislative Analyst, NRC, AAA, GasBuddy, Tax Foundation, MIT/Stanford, Kpler, Bloomberg, Reuters, CalMatters, UC Davis. March 2026.
© 2026 CA Policy · About