Policy Analysis — June 2026

High-Speed Rail: $126B and Counting

18 years. $18 billion spent. Zero passengers. The most expensive infrastructure failure in American history.

Original Cost

$33B

2008 estimate

Current Cost

$126B

2026 estimate

Spent So Far

$18B

Zero passengers

Track Laid

0 mi

After 18 years

A Timeline of Broken Promises

2008

Prop 1A approved. $9.9B bond. Promise: SF-LA by 2020 for $33B.

2012

Cost revised to $68B. 'Blended' approach adopted to share tracks with commuter rail.

2015

Groundbreaking in Fresno. Construction begins on Central Valley segment.

2018

Cost jumps to $77B. Federal funding disputes begin.

2019

Gov. Newsom scales back to Central Valley segment. 'Let's be real,' he says.

2022

Cost hits $105B. 70% of Central Valley guideway structures complete.

2024

$13.8B spent total. $128B full Phase 1 estimate. No track laid.

2025

70 miles of guideway ready for track. Federal funding termination notice issued.

2026

$4B federal funding terminated. Cost trimmed to $126.2B. Target: 2033 service.

18 years. $18 billion. Zero passengers. The project was supposed to be complete by 2020. In 2026, not a single mile of high-speed track has been laid. The scope has shrunk from 800 miles to 119 miles under construction, connecting two Central Valley cities that most Californians have never visited.

What Voters Were Promised vs What They Got

Route

Promised

SF to LA to Sacramento to San Diego (800 mi)

Reality

Merced to Bakersfield (171 mi planned, 119 under construction)

Travel Time

Promised

SF to LA in 2 hours 40 minutes

Reality

Merced to Bakersfield only. No connection to either major city.

Cost

Promised

$33-45 billion total system

Reality

$126.2 billion for Phase 1 alone. Central Valley segment: $34.76B.

Completion

Promised

Operational by 2020

Reality

Maybe 2033 for Merced-Bakersfield. Full system: unknown.

Sources: EIA, CAISO, CA Energy Commission, CPUC, CA Legislative Analyst, NRC, AAA, GasBuddy, Tax Foundation, MIT/Stanford, Kpler, Bloomberg, Reuters, CalMatters, UC Davis. March 2026.