The 2025–26 mid-decade redistricting wave — first since the 1960s.
Redistricting normally happens once a decade after the Census. In summer 2025, that pattern broke. President Trump pressed Texas Republicans to redraw maps mid-decade to pick up five US House seats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Texas passed the new map in August. California Governor Newsom called a special election to authorize a counter-gerrymander — Proposition 50, which voters approved 64.4% to 35.6% on November 4, 2025.
The cascade kept going. Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio passed new GOP-favoring maps. Utah was forced by court order to draw a more competitive one. Virginia Democrats voted to amend the state constitution to allow mid-decade redistricting and approved a new map on April 21, 2026. Indiana's GOP Senate rejected its own legislature's plan in December 2025 — the first state to break ranks. Florida is actively exploring its own redraw.
The Supreme Court allowed the Texas map to take effect for 2026 on December 4, 2025, despite a lower-court finding it likely violated the Constitution. The trial on the merits will continue. California's map survived its own court challenges in January 2026.
Estimated net seat shifts from the 2025-26 mid-decade redistricting cycle.
Positive = seats projected to flip Republican. Negative = seats projected to flip Democrat. Net effect: roughly Republicans +9, Democrats -9 — close to a wash, but the timing of court rulings will determine the actual 2026 outcome.