Policy Analysis — June 2026

Crime: The Accountability Crisis

Prop 47 raised the theft threshold. Smash-and-grabs tripled. DA recall movements in 5 counties.

Violent Crime
-12%
vs 2019
Homicide Rate
2nd Low
Since 1966
Property Crime
Record Low
2024 data
Retail Theft
213K
Reported incidents

California Crime Rates: The Actual Numbers

Per 100,000 residents

20142016201820192020202120222023202418002100240027003000350395440485520
The headline numbers are actually positive. Property crime hit record lows in 2024. The homicide rate is at its second-lowest since 1966. Violent crime is down 12% vs 2019. Compared to the 1980s-90s, California is dramatically safer. But the data doesn't capture the full picture of what residents experience.

The Clearance Problem

% of property crimes resulting in arrest (clearance rate)

20132015201720192021202320240%7%14%21%25%
This is the real crisis. Property crime clearance rates have halved in a decade. A person is half as likely to be apprehended for property crime today as in 2014. When there are no consequences, rational actors steal more. The crime rate may be low, but the accountability rate is lower.
Sources: EIA, CAISO, CA Energy Commission, CPUC, CA Legislative Analyst, NRC, AAA, GasBuddy, Tax Foundation, MIT/Stanford, Kpler, Bloomberg, Reuters, CalMatters, UC Davis. March 2026.
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